What’s in store for Singapore’s construction sector and commodity prices
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The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has stopped tightening and is maintaining its exchange rate policy band, and Consumer Price Index (CPI-All) is still expected to be high in 2023. Singapore’s GDP is expected to decrease to 1.5% in 2023, down from 3.6% in 2022, which is primarily due to a manufacturing contraction amid the global slowdown.
The construction sector in Singapore had a real-term expansion of 6.6% last year, linked to an increase in consumer and investor confidence, as well as the easing of Covid-19-related travels and business restrictions. Construction output is now expanding as investment rises in residential and infrastructure, and will pull up prices of cement and aggregates. The industry is also expected to grow at an annual rate of 5.4% in 2023, yet labour shortages and high prices remain as challenges.
Lumber prices have remained evenly high, a trend expected to continue in the coming quarters, due to incentives for sustainable construction and the growth of new residential construction. Prices of bricks have stayed relatively steady and are set to rise in the following quarters due to increasing construction demand. Steel (structural and rebar) prices dropped sharply in the second half of last year and early 2023 before picking up in demand due to new civil engineering projects and China’s strong demand. Prices are predicted to stay volatile, but won’t return to the first half of 2022 peak.
Copper prices soared in January 2023 due to global demand and China’s reopening, although they steadily decreased between January and March of the same year. Domestic copper prices are estimated to rise in the long run as a result of Singapore’s Green Plan 2030, an initiative that includes public infrastructure development.
Despite the challenges the industry is facing, conditions are improving, and it is expected to regain pace in the medium to long term. Michael Murphy is the director of South East Asia at Linesight.